NCAA-to-pro pipeline: Men’s basketball

The GIST: Dreams will come true tonight at the 2024 NBA Draft and, based on ESPN’s mock draft, 43 of the 58 selectees will hail from the NCAA. So let’s dive into the college-to-NBA pipeline, plus all the names to know before the ABC broadcast begins at 8 p.m. ET.

The process: The NBA uses a traditional draft structure in which the league’s 30 teams make selections across two rounds. Normally, that equates to 60 picks, but the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns lost their second-round 2024 picks as punishment for tampering violations, so tonight’s lucky number is 58.

• NCAA men are generally eligible for the draft after competing in one season of college hoops, aka the “one-and-done” rule.

• While there are ample professional opportunities overseas or in the G League (the NBA’s developmental league), the odds of a college star making the NBA are long: Only 1.1% of all eligible NCAA players — 3.6% of eligible Division I players — were chosen in last year’s draft.

• And though some of the league’s biggest stars, like LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Nikola Jokic, did not play NCAA ball, the vast majority of NBAers did. Of the 532 currently active NBA players, only 67 skipped college hoops.

This year’s top crop: International stars will likely capture the top draft spots, but Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard is projected to go as high as the No. 3 overall pick. Reigning two-time Player of the Year, Purdue’s 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, should also hear his name in the first round.

• Other likely first-rounders include guard Stephon Castle and center Donovan Clingan, who led UConn to two straight NCAA titles, as well as 2023–24’s breakout star, Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht. Hey now.