Piecing together the CFP puzzle

October 30, 2023

There are four more weeks of regular-season play left, but momentum’s already building toward the (final) four-team College Football Playoff (CFP) this winter — so let’s dig into everything you need to know as the postseason puzzle pieces fall into place.

College Football

SOURCE: CHARLIE RIEDEL/AP PHOTO

The GIST: There are four more weeks of regular-season play left, but momentum’s already building toward the (final) four-team College Football Playoff (CFP) this winter — so let’s dig into everything you need to know as the postseason puzzle pieces fall into place.

The format: The CFP pits the nation’s top four FBS teams (as selected by a 13-member committee) against each other to determine who wins college football’s ultimate prize: the CFP National Championship Trophy. Think March Madness, but if they started with the Final Four.

Those four teams play in two New Year’s Day semifinals, which are hosted on a rotating basis by the New Year’s Six (NY6) bowl games — the most elite of the FBS’ 42 bowls.

This year, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are the CFP semis, and their winners will contend for natty glory on January 8th, 2024.

The rankings: The gold standard in college football rankings is the Associated Press (AP) — the poll used in this newsletter. But starting tomorrow, the CFP selection committee will drop their own weekly, often remixed Top 25 — basically a sneak peek into who the committee is seriously considering for one of those top four spots.

For that reason, those CFP ranks are a BFD to teams, but until they lock in their choices on December 3rd (Selection Sunday), they’re not entirely useful — so, the name of our game will be the AP’s poll until then.

The standards: With only four available spots, there's no room for error. Elite teams can blow their CFP chance with a single loss — which is why then–No. 6 Oklahoma’s 38–33 fall to then-unranked Kansas on Saturday was a bigger disaster for the Sooners’ playoff hopes than it was for Kansas’ goalposts. If a team suffers two losses? Forget about it.

What’s next: The next four weeks of regular-season football plus conference championships will have a big impact on the committee’s decisions, but this year’s CFP countdown clock officially begins tomorrow.